In their responses managers however evoke some tracks

During the German campaign for legislative elections last year, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Christian Democrats (CDU) nuclear division had weighed on the sector energy. In the United States, the victory of the Democrats in mid-term elections a few weeks ago resulted in strong corrections on the pharmaceutical market fearing a favourable to the generic drug reform. In the Netherlands, the formation of the coalition Government raised the issue of Schiphol, the Amsterdam airport, the Social Democrats (PvdA), opposed to its privatization. That will be in France five months just now of the presidential election, while the two candidates "stars" are now known

For Jean - Hervé Lorenzi, President of the circle of economists ("The circle" published early November the book exciting in Perrin, "Right, left-wing economic policy economic policy", which imagines the "good" economic policy in the other case), "the election of Angela Merkel has had an impact on the economic policy of the Germany, Romano Prodi on the Italy, and there is no reason that the France be exception." Because the candidates retain flexibility to differentiate their economic policies despite the constraints imposed in the two camps. Political cleavages are certainly less sliced than in the past, but the right approach is different from the left. "On the reform of the State for example, the right tends to prefer solutions through independent agencies so that the left generally opted for centralized solutions conducted by agents of the State".

In the community of economists, the question is to debate. For Guillaume Menuet, an economist at Merrill Lynch, "the election of a candidate from left to right would have little impact on French growth in next five years." "The difference is mainly at the level of the pace of reforms on the first two years, depending on whether Nicolas Sarkozy is implementing his draft of contract of employment or that Ségolène Royal favors or a single boost demand as had done the previous Socialist elected."

For Eric Chaney, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, the flexibility of the candidates will be reduced by the need to reform the working to stem the loss of competitiveness and public finances while the Germany and the Italy have already adjusted their taxation.

What about equity markets Laurence Chieze-Devivier, Economist at AXA, recalled that "the CAC 40 index had deviated us indices in 1981, losing 35 between late April and June at the time where the political cleavages were marked with the joint programme of the left." In 2002, it had also strongly declined, losing 5 between the two towers, and then quickly joined the trend. "But unless a repeat of this scenario, the 2007 election will be at most a temporary impact and may eventually lead to a certain wait between the presidential and the legislative.

Effects of announcement

As noted by Dominique Sabassier, the Managing Director at Natixis, "the impact of the elections on the indices ceased to be reduced because the markets are increasingly correlated." However, they can influence sectoral movements for example on energy, temporary work, pharmacy , that amplify "hedge funds" and dealers during electoral campaigns. Because the election outcome can changer and promote or weigh on some areas where policies retain influence through regulation and taxation. "The increase in VAT announced by Angela Merkel will for example have an impact on consumption, causing the immediate acceleration of expenditure in advance".

The consequences of the "mano a mano" between inducted by the Socialist Party candidate and that reported last week, the UMP could also be felt sooner than expected including during the election campaign. Some managers do not exclude that some sectors benefit from effects of announcement, including the environment. A manager pointed out that this theme on which the political divisions have faded could give rise to a competing projects. Gold in this narrow area, and in addition linked to the regulation and subsidies, statements of candidates could impact biomass, biofuels or renewable energies. Surveyed on this issue, the managers say clearly that they monitor this sector during the campaign. But, while some will seek in the programmes of guidance on the most promising sectors for to redeploy their portfolios, others object that the sector already drained important and highly corrected flow since the month of May. Also could take advantage of possible interest to unbuckle their positions.

And after The consequences on the stock exchange of the possible election of one or other of the two stars of today candidates would of course still a most. In case of victory of Nicolas Sarkozy, some managers do not for example hide their nervousness on big distribution after its passage in Bercy. The majority of managers however negate this fear, holding that the essence of the reform has already been conducted. Others raised the question of the taxation of life insurance, especially in case of victory of Ségolène Royal, that moderate however most managers, tax incentives remain one of the best mechanics of the financing of pensions.

In their responses, managers however evoke some tracks. In case of victory of Nicolas Sarkozy, they cite including the financial, nuclear power, media, construction and especially services to health and the temporary work with the project of reform of the ANPE. In case of victory of Ségolène Royal, they address the environmental and renewable energy in alliance with the Greens and the consumption for stimulus by the application. On this point, the managers are however shared the margin of manoeuvre is limited by the budget constraint. Quite clearly, a trend profile on community services and energy, on which they will display greater vigilance in case of victory of the Socialist candidate.