Alstom and Schneider leave clear favorite

On the 20 of investors who have expressed their interest in Areva T & D, Areva electric distribution and transmission division, three were eventually filed Friday of not engaging offers. Concordant sources, this is the Habs tandem Alstom-Schneider, a consortium formed around the General Electricet of the Japanese Toshiba American. AXA Private Equity Investment Fund, which had watched the case closely, seems to be out of the race at the last moment. The ball is now in the camp of the State, shareholder has more than 90 of the nuclear group.

Three selection criteria

AREVA is given 3 selection criteria: the award, the industrial project and the social project. Its supervisory board meets on 2 November to analyze the offers. Interviewed last Thursday by the committees of finance and Economic Affairs of the National Assembly, the President of Areva, Anne Lauvergeon, reiterated that the sale would not if redemption offers were not considered to be "quite attractive". The State, he is everything to demonstrate that the process is open, but his behavior will be scrutinized closely by investors. Alstom and Schneider leave clear favorite. The President of the Republic is committed to support national champions in its industrial policy. It is even more true in the case of the group chaired by Patrick Kron, with Nicolas Sarkozy has kept the links preferred since that he saved him from bankruptcy, during her time at Bercy, in 2003.

The two French companies highlight also the "patriotic" their proposal dimension. "This is a 100 industrial offer will help maintain the centres of France decisions", indicates a Schneider spokesman. Concerning the price, the consortium believes that Areva T & D is at the top of cycle. He wants proof of this degradation of performance in the first half. Sources close to Alstom readily cited estimates of analysts included between 3 and 3.4 billion for the division of 31,000 employees. Under pressure from the European Commission, Alstom it was sold to Areva for EUR 920 million five years ago.

Play the national map

General Electric, which the French subsidiary is chaired by enarque Clara Gaymard, will probably play him as the national map. The US group has important plants of turbines in Belfort, he had purchased from Alstom in 2003. Moreover, on the industrial level, it is already linked to Areva T & D since the two companies are working together in India. Its partner, the CVC Fund, is certainly not French as AXA Private Equity or Wendel, but it is European, based in London. Remains whether the price is likely to tip the balance in its meaning. In the worst cases, GE will have taken date and will be able to assert its approach to the Government for future calls for tenders...

Toshiba offer could also include a few assets, starting with the price. Unconfirmed rumours reported in early September offer up to EUR 4 billion. In relation to Alstom and Schneider, two foreign bids have the advantage of preserving unity of T & D and, without doubt, its French factories. Average voltage, Schneider could accumulate more than 75 by France market share. Then, would be forced to cede hexagonal factories for competition reasons. For this reason, French unions are not the most pieces on the Habs ticket.