Cannot conclude to a real rebound in its influence

One half of the electorate is likely to miss the call Sunday night. For easily predictable reasons ("Les Echos" of January 8, 2010), this regional election campaign has not passionate crowds. A ten days of the first round, 51 of respondents reported not to be interested is from TNS Sofres (1). As usual, these are popular classes and the young people who demonstrate the most generator indifference for forbearance. For OpinionWay (2), 54 of the respondents expressed "some to vote", likely a question used to estimate the level of participation. Convergent manner, the CSA Institute (3) evaluates to 48 per cent of the registered rate of abstentions and votes void in its latest survey and white.

The conditions are met so that the voting booths are considered as ever in a regional election. The previous record had been registered in 1998 with the rate of abstention from 42 of registered voters. An important part of the electorate of right, unhappy or demoralized, divert no doubt of the ballot box. Symmetrically, a fraction of the electorate of left neglect a ballot issues poorly perceived and presented as played in advance. Surely, this high level of abstention relativisera the lessons of this election.

Unlike the European the regional campaign was not marked by discussions to affect the mood of voters. Analysis of the surveys of voting intentions revealed no obvious movement since the beginning of the year. Seems to be established a force national report exceptionally favourable to the left. Its various lists total between 52 and 56 of the potential vote according to the latest published surveys (4).

The lists of the UMP (27 to 31) are credited to a neighbouring score from those of the PS (27 to 31). It is likely that the first lead the seconds on the evening of March 14. But this order has little importance in an election which, unlike the European, is gaining in two towers. This equivalence of forces is rather disturbing for the presidential party. Because he has played the card of the unit in the first round by calling its lists with its allies as the new Centre, the MPF and CPNT. Conversely, the Socialist Party could prevent environmentalists and Communists to stand independent of him in the vast majority of the regions.

In this regard, the relief of the PS to the underperformance of the European is less remarkable than the score expected of Europe ecology. If the polls confirm polls (12 to 14 of the vote), the ecologists would be settlers for a second consecutive vote above 10 bar to be seen as an ally to spare. While returning to their function of dominant party, the Socialists would now flanked by a partner with the ability to assert his right to difference.

This regional poll could well, in any other way yet, quite radically changing the equation of the alliances that the PS will have to solve in the future. The Modem, perceived a time as a future partner by some Socialists, promises to be brutal loss of speed. Credited with 4 to 5 of the vote, the Party of François Bayrou represents a failure though after his score disappointing of European (8.5). It may weigh less heavy than the Front left (alliance of the party left and FCP), valued between 6 and 7 of potential votes. This new order may encourage the PS to look back on the left rather than right...

Contrary to what has often been written, the national Front has not registered progress during this election campaign. His score has not significantly changed in recent months among four institutes that have measured the voting intentions. With 8 to 9 of potential votes, the FN appears to be promised to a poor score. He would certainly be a figure higher than that of the European (6.3), but the regional election is traditionally favourable to the extreme-right party. Cannot conclude to a real rebound in its influence.