Gasproducing countries are trying to rally

Gas-producing countries are trying to rally. Tomorrow, eleven of them, including the Russia, the Algeria and the Qatar, will gather in Doha at the gas exporting countries forum. The objective Stop the gas spot prices fall. Since the beginning of the year, they fell by more than 15 in the United States while oil was a reverse evolution, to now around $ 75. Cedigaz, a research firm, the year should close by a decrease of 5 to 6.5 of global demand. In the first half, consumption fell by 4.4 in the United States, 11 in Germany and 8.6 in the Japan. With the advent of a number of projects in the Middle East and Asia, most stakeholders believe that the gas market could be overcapacity of production for three to six years.

In this context, the producers are concerned. "We will look at and consider ways of stabilizing the price of gas," said last weekend the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of energy of Qatar, Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah. In early November, the Algeria called on countries members of the Organization to agree on a strategy to ensure a "fair price" of the gas. "The gas exporting countries forum should adopt an organization similar to that of the Organization of petroleum exporting countries to defend the economic interests of its members," said the Minister of energy of the Algeria, Chakid Khelil.

This year, the forum, which was established in 2001, a step in this direction. The eleven Member countries will perform for the first time to the election of a Secretary-General. An intended appointment "to revitalize the Organization and make it more effective," said the President of the Libyan national company, Choukri Ghanem. Equipped with two large reserves of gas in the world, the Iran and the Russia are in competition on this position.

Margins of manoeuvre limited

On the merits, the producer countries have however margins of manoeuvre restricted to weigh on prices. Contrast of oil, the introduction of quotas of gas production is impossible, since the bulk of the supply comes from contracts of twenty-five or thirty years indexed to the price of oil. At best, countries may attempt to coordinate their future investments.

The actors are in very different situations. The vast majority of Russian deliveries is by pipeline, whereas the Qatar natural gas liquefied by cargo. The Emirate has therefore greater flexibility to supply gas markets European, Asian or American price. Finally, the past does not argue for cooperation between the Russia and the Arab countries. "The Russia has never reduced its oil production to support the efforts of OPEC." "The country endorsed the idea of a gas cartel but it will not lose its freedom of decision," said one London analyst.

So why consider the creation of a "gas OPEC" "Producing countries try to counterbalance the speeches of historical buyers", said Guy Maisonnier, French Institute of petroleum. The price of crude rose in 2009 but not gas sold on the spot markets. This development is an issue to buyers such as GDF Suez or E.ON Rurhgas because it has made gas provided much less competitive long-term contracts. Many of them argue for a review of the contracts. A position that irritates the producer countries and encourages them to stiffen their resolve.