3 million people compared to 400000 in the 1910s

THE THIRD AMERICAN REVOLUTION

by Jacques Mistral

Perrin, 240 pages, 17 euros

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the United States have experienced three major political changes. The first was the New Deal of Roosevelt in the 1930s, which laid the foundations for a system of negotiation and social and facility protection, after the war, the development of a dynamic and prosperous middle class. The second was with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, the triumph of ideology non, hostile (in principle) to any government intervention, particularly in the social field, and Secretary to dismantle the legacy rooseveltien. A "third revolution" prepares, in reaction to the excesses of a country with nearly 80 of citizens believe that it is "wrong track". That is the idea central to this book, probably the most illuminating and more insightful in the abundant production dedicated, in France, the next American presidential issues. Written by a distinguished economist who has just six years across the Atlantic in contact with decision makers, it also reflects a hands-on experience drawn from travels across the country.

What are these excesses by opinion Financial fragility (the work was completed in July, before the deepening of the crisis, but it perfectly explains the causes), the loss of competitiveness, the development of inequalities. The author shows that these weaknesses are complementary, that they originated a same ideological body. In the financial field, the President of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, Greenspan doctrine, has greatly facilitated the speculation and its corollary, the distortion of income. It explained that, for the United States, the excavation of a current account deficit financed by external capital was not problem, because globalization and flexibility of markets abolished the old constraint required to finance the investment, for the most part, by national savings. The fact that the United States are aware of negative savings rate was in the order of things.

Similarly, the acceleration of productivity due to new technologies allowed, according to Greenspan, strong growth without inflation, so keeping very low rates. Thus, says the author, the Fed provided sorcerer's apprentices to financial innovation "free raw." It realized now that artificial increases in the price of assets (including housing) has created an illusion of enrichment and caused the disappearance of the savings at the expense of productive investment. On the asset that would represent the American advance in information technology, the book dispels a few ideas: the American share of world exports of high-tech products declined by 23 in 1990 to 16 in 2003.

Economic insecurity

This economic model had its social translation. Americans median income, which had increased by 15 (excluding inflation) between 1993 and 2000, remains stagnant since growth has benefited to the rich and the risks on the employment and income worsened. The author summarizes the causes of the increase in inequality: to the top, these are new forms of remuneration of managers, the more advanced qualifications, the high concentration of financial assets. Down, international competition, the Union weakened and a unique thrust of immigration: the country welcomes each year approximately 1.3 million people (compared to 400,000 in the 1910s.) Another reality poorly known: If the unemployment rate is apparently low compared with ours, more than 10 of men aged 25 to 54 are inactive (against 6.3 in France...) to be be withdrawn from the market of work because wages are too little attractive. Economic insecurity and the end of the upward social mobility scour the middle class and the "American dream".

Is the "third revolution" possible The author, man of the left resolutely américanophile, and place much hope in Barack Obama, discern the signs of a Jolt social, environmental, industrial , convinced that the United States, more than any other nation, the ability to "transform problems into opportunities." It will be the end of the financial maelstrom and the result of the vote in November whether this optimism is warranted.