The Brazil and the Canada and found the smile

The simplicity of the scheme has something attractive: after years of unbalanced growth, which saw the United States play the role of the cicada while in development, and particularly Asia China, was one of the Ant, the time would be the reversal of the system. The Chinese domestic consumption would be our lifesaver.

All economists know yet that the transition which will make China a purchaser of goods will take years, if not decades. Because this requires, first, that the per capita income substantially increases (it is roughly 2,000 dollars per capita), but also for the State to put in place a social infrastructure (health, retirement, unemployment) which reassures households and decrease their propensity to save. In the meantime, export remains the key to the Chinese system. It is sufficient for proof, see the reversal of Beijing regarding its currency, the yuan. While China agreed to let it appreciate, since 2005, it it was secured, again, to the dollar in July 2008, when the global crisis has threatened its exporters. In a critical period, more issue to take a bullet in the foot by penalizing the competitiveness of the "made in China".

An appetite for the "low cost".

At the time of the Chinese takeover, will Beijing let its currency start rising The markets are betting, because objectively the yuan is undervalued. However, such a scenario is by no means be guaranteed, because world trade seems to be permanently maintained. This means that global competition will be exacerbated. And in this context, the "factor price" will be more important than ever. Indeed, China Asian competitors snapped currently hair to prevent their currencies to appreciate against the Renminbi, caused by the decline of the greenback. Monetary war is still not his name, but it shows his face every day. In this context, that sell to China, and Asia more generally when a Western country Consumer products Of course, but given their income, Chinese households have primarily an appetite for the "low cost", niche on which companies in their countries have several lengths of advance. Machine tools and capital goods Perhaps, and the Germany will continue to play this map. But some moderation might prevail, because in six sectors of activity, Beijing has announced its willingness to combat overcapacity. Raw materials Yes: China started to consume to feed its industrial machine. The Brazil and the Canada and found the smile. And the Australia, which the basement is full of almost all ores, just increase its interest rates to curb a growing excitement.

Seen: Europe would do better not to overly rely on Chinese consumers to get out of the rut. Or indeed on the Japanese, permanently stuck in a problem of purchasing power. The scenario of a phase of contraction of globalization is therefore not excluded. The Americans, too indebted, or the Chinese, not rich enough, can take the global consumption. Confirmation of Jean-Christophe Caffet, an economist at Natixis: "Today, the variable key to the European economy becoming domestic demand."It will have to demonstrate inventiveness to support, at a time when public debt soaring, and where it is clear that the Keynesian stimulus is a double-edged weapon.